| True Unemployment Numbers in Massachusetts |
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| 已发布 on 2003-04-25 01:44:44 EST |
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The state's relatively low official unemployment rate does not tell the true story of how many people are out of work, according to a new study.
The state's traditional method of calculating unemployment rates, 5.3 percent according to February numbers, does not count part-time workers, commuters from neighboring states who lose jobs in Massachusetts, people getting by on temporary work, or residents who move out of state, according to a study by Northeastern University's Center for Labor Market Studies.
The way the state measures the unemployment rate hasn't changed, "But the nature of unemployment has changed," said Andrew Sum, director of the center and principal author of the study. "If you want to understand what's going on, you've got to look beyond the unemployment statistics."
Commuters from other states are counted as jobless according to where they live, rather than where they work.
Between 1990 and 2000, the number of out-of-state commuters grew 15 percent, and their job losses alone, estimated by the study at about 8,000, are equivalent to as much as a third of a percentage point of the Massachusetts unemployment rate.
Since employment peaked in early 2001, Massachusetts has lost nearly 5 percent of its jobs, slightly more than the recession of 1974-75. But the current unemployment rate is less than half that of the earlier recession, which peaked at 12.3 percent in June 1975.
Much of the difference between the rates is explained by the slowing growth of the labor pool. In the 1970s, the Massachusetts labor pool was growing by more than 2 percent a year, adding new workers to an economy that couldn't produce enough jobs for the current ones, which led to soaring unemployment.
In contrast, since 1989 the labor force has grown at an annual average rate of less than 0.2 percent, meaning fewer new workers for the economy to absorb.
"In the '70s, the rate was going up because kids were entering the work force and couldn't find jobs," Sum said. "Now, it's because of career workers whose jobs were eliminated."
Sanghamitra Chowdhury of Acton, Mass., lost her $80,000-a-year software engineer job more than a year ago, but is teaching computers at an elementary school four hours a week for $12 an hour. That part-time job means she is counted as employed.
In the first six months of last year, the number of people working part-time jobs for economic reasons doubled to 84,000 from the same period in 2001, according to the study, which analyzed data collected from household surveys used to estimate unemployment.
The study also found that the percentage of people holding multiple jobs has fallen nearly a point, or the equivalent of about 30,000 workers, since 2000.
Other people simply move out of state, which also reduces the unemployment rate.
In 2002, the net number of people leaving the state doubled to 28,000 from the previous year. That figure may accelerate because Massachusetts is expected to recover later than other parts of the country with its concentration of industries hardest hit by the recession -- technology and financial services.
Laurence Stybel, president of Stybel Peabody Lincolnshire, Mass., an executive career management firm in Boston, said more jobs are becoming available in the Southeast and Midwest, and an increasing number of his Massachusetts clients are willing to relocate.
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